Storm Screener
Three-day thunderstorm outlook for southern Romania — Bucharest in Muntenia, Craiova in Oltenia
Now Measured by radar
Forecast Three-day outlook
Latest published outlook
Bucharest, Monday 12 October 2026 — weak instability. No storm chance is published for this date. The archive covers May to September only. October was never measured at this location, so there is no base rate for 2026-10-12. ICON-EU gives a 88% chance of rain of any kind. 40 of 40 ensemble members put the day at or above the weak band. Published in the run of 12 October 2026, 15:27 Europe/Bucharest.
Bucharest, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — weak instability. No storm chance is published for this date. The archive covers May to September only. October was never measured at this location, so there is no base rate for 2026-10-13. ICON-EU gives a 66% chance of rain of any kind. 40 of 40 ensemble members put the day at or above the weak band. Published in the run of 12 October 2026, 15:27 Europe/Bucharest.
Bucharest, Wednesday 14 October 2026 — weak instability. No storm chance is published for this date. The archive covers May to September only. October was never measured at this location, so there is no base rate for 2026-10-14. ICON-EU gives a 44% chance of rain of any kind. Published in the run of 12 October 2026, 15:27 Europe/Bucharest.
Craiova, Monday 12 October 2026 — weak instability. No storm chance is published for this date. The archive covers May to September only. October was never measured at this location, so there is no base rate for 2026-10-12. ICON-EU gives a 50% chance of rain of any kind. 40 of 40 ensemble members put the day at or above the weak band. Published in the run of 12 October 2026, 15:34 Europe/Bucharest.
Craiova, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — weak instability. No storm chance is published for this date. The archive covers May to September only. October was never measured at this location, so there is no base rate for 2026-10-13. ICON-EU gives a 56% chance of rain of any kind. 40 of 40 ensemble members put the day at or above the weak band. Published in the run of 12 October 2026, 15:34 Europe/Bucharest.
Craiova, Wednesday 14 October 2026 — weak instability. No storm chance is published for this date. The archive covers May to September only. October was never measured at this location, so there is no base rate for 2026-10-14. ICON-EU gives a 43% chance of rain of any kind. Published in the run of 12 October 2026, 15:34 Europe/Bucharest.
These figures are base rates over past days that resemble the forecast, not probabilities produced for these dates, and they cover two cities rather than two regions. The cards below carry the same run in full, with the model's written briefing, the hourly instability and the 6-hour windows.
What this page is
Storm Screener is a storm watcher for two cities in southern Romania: it publishes a three-day thunderstorm outlook for Bucharest, in Muntenia, and Craiova, in Oltenia. It is rebuilt every three hours. Each day card carries the instability band, a risk level, the chance of thunder measured against what actually happened at the airport, agreement across 40 ensemble members, and a short written briefing.
The radar panel above the outlook shows the national ANM composite, which covers the whole of Romania including all of Muntenia and Oltenia, as reflectivity in dBZ or rain rate in millimetres per hour, updated every ten minutes, so storm cells show in near real time. Official ANM weather warnings for București and Dolj counties are shown verbatim with their time of issue, and can be sent to a phone through a Telegram bot that keeps only a chat number, the city chosen and the subscribe date. The site itself has no account and stores no user data.
Where the numbers come from
Forecasts are ICON-EU (DWD, about 7 km) through Open-Meteo, with the lifted index from NOAA GFS. Radar is the Administrația Națională de Meteorologie open-data composite. Warnings reach the page through EUMETNET Meteoalarm. Thunder observations used to score the page come from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet METAR archive for LRBS (Bucharest Băneasa) and LRCV (Craiova). A small fine-tuned language model writes the prose; it interprets the forecast and does not produce it.
What it does not claim
The storm chance is a base rate: the share of comparable archived days on which thunder was reported at the airport, corrected against the live forecast record. It is not a probability produced by a model for that date. It covers two cities, not the whole of Muntenia and Oltenia. The archive is one warm season, so every figure carries its sample size and its confidence interval, and a band with too few days publishes no figure at all. The page scores its own accuracy monthly and publishes the result whether it flatters the page or not.
Page text last revised . The forecast, radar and warnings above update on their own schedule.